46 More Days (HV Weekly: 10/10/2020)
How limited preseason prep might affect the college basketball season.
Welcome back to the Hoop Vision Weekly!
In today’s edition, we speculate on what the college basketball season might look like this year without normal preseason preparation. Including a preseason anecdote from my previous experiences working in the sport.
But first…
We released preseason preview #2 this week for Hoop Vision PLUS subscribers: Illinois.
The write-up includes:
Statistical analysis of Illinois’ defensive shift from “on-the-line-up-the-line” pressure to pack line last season
Film breakdown of the the Illinois offense
What needs to improve for the Illini this season
For the full article and video on Illinois, become a Hoop Vision PLUS member today for $10/month or $100/year.
We have a new team coming every Monday for subscribers. Up next is Louisville and (more specifically) a deep dive into David Johnson — everyone’s favorite breakout candidate for 2020-21.
No scrimmages or exhibitions
With so much still to be determined logistically about the 2020-21 college basketball season, discussion of the eventual on-court product has mostly taken a backseat in the news cycle. But even once the logistics are settled, it will likely be the most unique season on the court in recent memory.
This summer, programs and players had very limited access — practices, individual workouts, strength training — relative to a typical offseason. Talking to several coaches, they already feel “behind” — especially for teams with a high degree of roster turnover from last season.
Leading up to the season, that preparation gap is only going to widen. In a Zoom news conference on Thursday, Bob Huggins discussed the removal of preseason scrimmages and exhibition games.
“To most of us, I think the most disturbing thing is they took away a scrimmage and they took away an exhibition game from us. We’re going to go play three games in three days without playing against anybody else first. I think that’s not fair to our guys, to be honest with you.”
I’m not sure I totally agree with Huggins on the “fairness” of the rule. Yes, West Virginia players will be playing three games in three days without playing against anybody else first — but against other teams and players in the same situation.
However, it does seem plausible that a lack of preseason competition could affect the overall quality of play.
In a normal year, it’s generally wise advice not to put too much stock into secret scrimmages. (Despite the name, they often aren’t so secret.) Depending on the circumstances, the scrimmages are often conducted more like a practice than game. There might be a segment, for example, where the coaches agree to play zone defense — providing each team with reps at attacking a zone. Or even a “special situations” segment where teams take turns executing different out of bounds or late game scenarios.
It’s not that coaches and players don’t take these scrimmages seriously. On the contrary, because it’s the first time playing against an opponent besides yourself, there’s plenty of enthusiasm and hustle during scrimmages. But the overall purpose is not necessarily to win the scrimmage itself, it’s to prepare the team to win in the future.
This season, teams won’t have those dress rehearsals.
Sloppy play early in the season
Even with normal preseason preparation, November tends to produce some of the sloppiest basketball.
According to past Ken Pomeroy analysis, fouls and turnovers are at their highest in the beginning of the season. As the season progresses, pace decreases and efficiency increases — some evidence for a more under control style of play.
There are many potential reasons for these trends. Lack of experience and early season jitters could play some type of role. So could the officiating — with specific “points of emphasis” adhered to most strictly early in the season.
Another factor that I think might get taken for granted is simply the process of determining who should be playing. Believe it or not, there are many coaching staffs around the country still determining who their best (and worst) players are when a given season starts.
The table on the left includes every game from the 2019-20 season. In November games, an average of 10.4 players per game recording minutes. By March, rotation shrank down to 9.5 players per game.
Of note, the change in rotation size isn’t totally explained by early season blow outs. Even when removing blow outs (for the table on the right), rotations still shrank over the course of the season.
(Another factor to note… Coaches do have some added incentives during the first semester to keep potential midseason transfer candidates happy by giving them extra playing time. After the fall semester ends, the transfer decision is usually put on hold until after the season.)
Preseason hype
“He’s added 20-pounds of muscle…”
“He’s in the best shape of his life…”
“He’s extended his range out to the three-point line…”
In virtually every sport, preseason reports annually lead to (potentially unwarranted) optimism about teams and players. There’s even been some baseball research out there to test the cliché.
Even if overly optimistic, these reports do tend to be rooted in some reality. In the college basketball world, offseason training is much more individually focused than during the season. Naturally, all players are trying to expand to their games and change their bodies.
The three-point shooting component is an especially interesting example. A player successfully expanding their shooting range is a win-win for all parties. For the individual, it makes them a better professional prospect. For the team, it helps open up the offense for better spacing.
So the general offseason environment is to encourage players — even those who haven’t been outside threats in the past — to shoot the three.
It’s great for summer morale and development — a reason for players to get extra work in — but reality can hit hard in the fall. If the shooting results don’t come to fruition early on, the reins get pulled in very quickly.
A real-life example of “he’s extended his range out to three-point line”…
In Eli Chuha’s four-year New Mexico State career, he took a total of 53 threes in 118 games. Of those 53 attempts, about half of them came during a 14-game stretch to start his junior season.
During the 14-game junior year stretch, Eli shot 1.8 threes per game
During the other 104 games, Eli shot 0.1 threes per game
In the offseason of his junior year, Eli was an example of a player that worked to extend his range. We monitored his progress in practices and scrimmages, and he was given the green light to start the season. By the end of non-conference play, Eli had made eight threes — but he was shooting a relatively disappointing 25%.
From what I can remember, there wasn’t a specific moment where Eli was told to stop shooting, but that’s pretty much what naturally happened anyways. He didn’t make a single three during the second half of the season, and then only made one during his senior year on 10 attempts.
If Eli got off to even just a slightly hotter start shooting the ball, his future shot distribution would likely have been much different. But that’s life in college basketball determining the signal from the noise in small sample sizes.
(Also in Eli’s case… He was very capable inside. And one of the best offensive rebounders in our league. So hanging out on the perimeter came with a trade-off.)
— — —
The moral of the story here is that your favorite team is still learning quite a bit about its roster in the offseason — and even sometimes during the first half of the season. And that should be especially true in the 2020-21 season given the special restrictions.
But hey, we’ll gladly take sloppy basketball over no basketball.
ICYMI this week
A tweet on JJ Redick and Duncan Robinson discussing shot selection and the side step three
A full-length YouTube video on Williams College’s offensive scheme in the 2014 D3 national championship game and Duncan Robinson
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