Basketball's back, all right! (HV Weekly: 11/1/2019)
Our long, shared nightmare has come to an end.
We’ll start this week off with some literature:
Now is the winter of our discontent.
— William Shakespeare, Richard III (1593)
…in other words:
Only 4 days until the 19-20 college basketball season officially begins..… #countdown
— Jon Rothstein, Twitter (this morning)
YES. We made it. We’re finally here.
Our discontent will soon disappear and our virtuous patience will be duly rewarded. The college basketball season is BACK this week, meaning this is the final offseason edition of the Hoop Vision Weekly for quite a while.
Actually, scratch that. This is now the first in-season edition of the Hoop Vision Weekly. We’ve got official games on the calendar this week; by the end Tuesday night, 74 teams will have one win and 74 teams will have one loss (yes, we’re including those pesky non-D1 games) — our hope is that there are no teams with a tie in their record, otherwise something has gone ENTIRELY wrong somewhere in the universe.
If you were with us last season — and many of you weren’t — these Hoop Vision Weekly emails are a little bit different during the season.
We typically start with a quick preview of the weekend’s games we’re most looking forward to, keep track of some of the most interesting matchups, and then include a typical roundup of the week from Hoop Vision and beyond. Every now and then, we’ll also feature a guest contributor diving into the nuances of the game or a curiosity they’ve been tracking throughout the season
(Interested in being a guest contributor this year? Reply to this email!)
Without further ado — as Hoop Vision Weekly circa right now:
“And Here. We. Go.”
LOOKING AHEAD
(*Reminder: Team rankings and score projections via KenPom.com)
This week (Tues/Weds/Thurs)…
10 games between teams in the KenPom Preseason Top 100
9 games between teams in Top 68
5 games between Top 48 teams
3 games between Top 32
Bonus: 2 games between Top 10
The fun ones (D1 vs. D1 only):
Highest-ranked matchups…
HM vs. HM: Michigan State (#1) vs. Kentucky (#2)
HM vs. MM: Saint Mary’s (#26) vs. Wisconsin (#45)
MM/LM vs. MM/LM: NJIT (#140) at Colgate (#110)
High-Major TRUE road games (excl. ACC in-conference games):
Utah at Nevada — Tues 10:30pm ET
Cincinnati at Ohio State — Weds 8:30pm ET
Biggest Projected Blowout…
Iowa State 90, Mississippi Valley State 56
Projected Highest-Scoring Game…
Arkansas 87, Rice 71
Projected Lowest-Scoring Game…
Northern Iowa 65, Old Dominion 59
And, as is tradition in the first Hoop Vision Weekly of every month; the best game on the schedule, each day of the month (click/tap image to see original tweet):
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Games To Watch
Obviously, the two Top-10 matchups this week are part of Tuesday night’s Champions Classic, as we have Michigan State vs. Kentucky (#1 vs. #2) and Duke vs. Kansas (#4 vs. #10). While the eyes of the college basketball world will be glued to those games, a more in-depth preview is coming on Tuesday for Hoop Vision PLUS subscribers.
But outside the annual spectacle that is the Champions Classic, we get two absolute TREATS next week: one mid-major versus high-major matchup on a neutral court and one November in-conference matchup between two of the most distinct styles at the highest level of the sport.
#26 Saint Mary’s vs. #45 Wisconsin
Tuesday 9pm ET (ESPNU) // Sioux Falls, N.D.
Saint Mary’s has two of the best mid-major players in the country this season in Jordan Ford and Malik Fitts. They will travel to Sioux Falls to take on a Wisconsin team who will need to get used to life after Ethan Happ.
Randy Bennett’s team is — for the most part — a known commodity. The Gaels finished #23 in KenPom’s AdjO last season and should be elite on the offensive side of the ball this season. Bennett’s blend of both traditional Princeton concepts with more modern offensive concepts puts him —in my opinion — as a top five offensive coach in the country.
(Sidenote: We’re not sure if Randy Bennett is a coffee drinker, but any Moraga-based coffee roaster should consider launching a “Bennett’s Blend” java line)
With the graduation of Happ, Greg Gard’s team is tougher to predict. The Badgers finished #4 in Kenpom’s AdjD last season and that should again be their stronger side of the ball this season. The biggest question though, naturally, will be who can find a way to replace — or make the best effort to replace — Happ as the primary offensive creator.
This game will be slow-paced, but an extremely fun chess match between the Saint Mary’s offense and the Wisconsin defense.
Film Room:
KenPom Prediction: Saint Mary’s 69, Wisconsin 67
(57% Saint Mary’s win probability)
#5 Virginia at #51 Syracuse
Wednesday 9pm ET (ACC Network)
The ACC tipping off the season with conference games is a fun twist, and Virginia traveling to Syracuse is the best of the bunch.
The last time Virginia traveled to the Carrier Dome, Tony Bennett made one of the highest-impact — and likely the most well-documented — in-game coaching adjustments of the season, when he moved De’Andre Hunter into the high post against the zone and dribbled Syracuse’s five-man (Paschal Chukwu) out onto the perimeter. Thanks to that adjustment — and some fortunate shooting variance — the Hoos scored 1.33 points per possession while knocking down 18 threes and overcame a big first half deficit.
This season, Virginia’s roster construction is significantly different. Unfortunately, we likely won’t get to see their man-to-man offense in this one, but an early season look at Mamadi Diakite and Jay Huff against solid competition will be fun nonetheless.
Syracuse enters the season sitting just 51st in the KenPom preseason rankings, but the Orange did just beat Canadian powerhouse Carleton — a team high-majors (like Duke last year) tend to try to avoid altogether — by 19 in an exhibition game at the Carrier Dome. Boeheim said the unique ACC schedule was the impetus for scheduling Carleton.
Film Room:
KenPom Prediction: Virginia 65, Syracuse 61
(65% UVA win probability)
LOOKING BACK
THE STUFF YOU MISSED WHILE ARGUING ABOUT OBSCURE MLB BASERUNNING RULES
First — some podcast news:
Jordan went on the NBC Sports College Basketball Talk podcast (hosted by HV+ subscriber Rob Dauster) on Wednesday to talk Kansas, Virginia and more, starting around the 23-minute mark. The opening guest is none other than Davidson head coach Bob McKillop. (Links here: Apple // Article)
We’re teaming up with Gibson Pyper (@HalfCourtHoops // Website) — a frequent Solving Basketball guest last season — to launch the new Big Game Pod, in which we’ll break down the biggest games of the season, beginning with Champions Classic on Tuesday:
Next, (and apologies, you’ll have to zoom in to find your squad), a look at how the entire nation stacks up in non-conference strength of schedule (using preseason rankings, of course).
A few adjustments / different looks in the replies to this tweet (click/tap below to view full thread) as some fans checked in to ask about variations:
As part of a larger article and video for Hoop Vision PLUS this week (more on that below), a look at post-up usage and style by year for four coaches:
But isn’t the post-up dead? Not so fast (video in tweet below — 2m20s):
A few more graphics / notes from Twitter this week you may have missed:
Every team’s first TRUE road game this year (a whopping 12 teams don’t play a true road game until January!)
Take a look at Butler’s weakside action off post entries (45 secs)
As noted in the matchups section at the top of this edition, Ohio State hosts Cincy on Wednesday night in a monster season opener for both teams. Take a video look at how Ohio State makes the most of Kaleb Wesson’s strength on post pins (30 secs)
THIS WEEK ON HOOP VISION PLUS
A big thank you to those of you who have already subscribed to HV+ and been supporting, sharing and asking about the work. It’s been a fun first month.
But now, it’s time to make this thing REAL as the season begins; there’s no better time to up the ante and subscribe to HV+ (and if you do it before Tuesday, you’ll be eligible for a few to-be-announced subscriber perks we’ll be rolling out throughout the season).
As always — some excerpts from the week of HV+ content:
Tuesday: Indiana and Post-Up Efficiency
A comprehensive video + additional notes on the role of the post-up in college basketball right now, along with a deeper look at Indiana and Archie Miller:
The eight-minute voiceover video features analysis of the post-up from both an Indiana perspective and a more general perspective. Included are:
How post-up usage (post-ups per game) has changed in recent years — both nationally and specifically for Archie Miller
The main ways to increase post-up efficiency beyond the standard 0.90 points per possession
Scouting expectations for Indiana’s Joey Brunk and De’Ron Davis this season
Post-up X’s and O’s from Kansas, Butler, Wisconsin, Saint Mary’s, and Belmont
Thursday: Hoops Dictionary — “The Stunt”
The rise of coaching content and widespread social media adoption has significantly helped with the standardization of basketball terminology, but in many cases, different coaches use different terms for the same ideas.
In the case of the stunt, another common term used by coaches is the bluff. To make things even more confusing, a particular type of stunt — one that occurs during a post-up — is often called a dig.
With all that in mind, let’s dive into the details behind the term.
What is a stunt?
A “stunt” is a defensive movement performed by a player to provide a less extreme form of help. Generally speaking, helping implies that a defender is fully prioritizing the ball over their own man. On the other hand, stunting implies the defender is only temporarily prioritizing the ball — and is ultimately focused on recovering back to their own man.
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