Championship Monday: Gonzaga-Baylor
The five questions that may end up deciding the 2021 national championship.
The matchup we’ve been waiting for is here!
In just a few hours, the top two teams in the country will finally battle it out for a national championship.
How we got here, however, has been a bit of a surprise.
Back in November, it seemed as though Gonzaga-Baylor was destined to be a battle of the top offense against the top defense: Gonzaga’s historically efficient offense against Baylor’s no-middle defense.
Instead, Baylor’s stronger side of the ball has also been offense. At 41.2%, the Bears lead the country in three-point percentage. In terms of adjusted offensive efficiency, they are now second nationally behind Gonzaga.
Meanwhile, Baylor’s defense has been inconsistent. There was even a stretch to end Big 12 play where four out of six Baylor opponents scored over 1.10 points per possession.
There are a couple of reasonable explanations for the struggles:
Baylor’s defensive struggles coincided with a covid-related season pause. The defense has been better in the NCAA tournament
Baylor has played more small-ball. The smaller lineups can help their offense, but really hurt their rim protection and defensive rebounding
In this year’s NCAA tournament run, Baylor has again shown flashes of elite defense. The Bears held Hartford, Wisconsin, and Villanova all below one point per possession. Arkansas and Houston scored 1.05 and 1.01 points per possession, respectively.
Tonight, Baylor will need more than “flashes” of elite defense to bother a Gonzaga offense that has shredded everyone in its path.
Here are my five biggest questions for the Baylor defense against the Gonzaga offense as we await one of the most anticipated national championship games of the past two decades.
1] How will Baylor’s ball pressure affect Gonzaga?
In the NCAA tournament, opponents have primarily chosen to defend Gonzaga conservatively — going under ball screens and/or sagging off of players not named Corey Kispert.
Given the on-ball defensive abilities of Davion Mitchell and Mark Vital, Baylor will almost certainly bring more pressure tonight.
(We wrote about Mark Vital’s aggressive style of defense in the February 1st edition of The Starting Five.)
With above average ball handlers at every position, Gonzaga has the personnel to handle ball pressure. Then again, the Zags have predominantly gone up against sagging defenses this season; if nothing else, Baylor has an opportunity to bring a different look.
I think the key for Baylor is to be strategic with their pressure. I like the idea of trying to speed Suggs and Nembhard up by being aggressive on the ball — but in moderation.
2] Can Baylor actually keep Gonzaga out of the middle?
The other important aspect of Baylor’s on-ball defense is forcing the ball baseline.
Against Houston, we saw some vintage Baylor no-middle defensive rotations. Here’s an example of Adam Flagler forcing DeJon Jarreau towards the baseline.
So can Baylor keep Gonzaga out of the middle?
I think it’s going to be very difficult.
The first obstacle for Baylor will be Gonzaga’s transition attack. The defense needs to be set in order to dictate Gonzaga towards one side of the court.
Even in the halfcourt, Gonzaga’s pace — more specifically, their ability to quickly move from one action to the next — will give Baylor’s defense all it can handle.
The Houston offense was stagnant and iso-heavy, succumbing to Baylor’s no-middle style. Gonzaga, on the other hand, will keep the ball moving and look to attack Baylor on the second and third sides of the possession.
Ball screen defense will also be a big determinant for how easy (or hard) it is for Gonzaga to get into the middle. More on that in question number four…
3] Can Gonzaga “cut” their way to a win?
Baylor’s off-ball defense is very high-risk, high-reward.
In Baylor’s scheme, off-ball defenders — especially Davion Mitchell and Jared Butler — tend to face the ball. Here’s an example from last week’s Starting Five newsletter recapping the Sweet 16.
When things are going right for the Bears, it looks like this. But that high risk-high reward style of play doesn’t leave a lot of room for error if the defenders aren’t engaged.
Gonzaga is fantastic at reading the defense for cuts to the basket, and Joel Ayayi is especially good at sneaking along the baseline.
Gonzaga’s cuts will likely put Baylor in some scramble situations.
4] How will Baylor guard ball screens?
For the majority of the season, Scott Drew has been unwilling to switch ball screens involving Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and Flo Thamba. Instead, Baylor defends ball screens with their bigs by putting two on the ball — usually trying to ice the handler to the baseline.
Good luck with that against Gonzaga.
Andrew Nembhard is one of the best ball screen passers in the country. The more often Baylor elects to put two on the ball, the bigger role Nembhard will play tonight.
The clip below was one of my favorite Gonzaga possessions from Saturday’s instant classic against UCLA. Down by two, Gonzaga went to a spread ball screen for Nembhard.
Kispert started the possession by cutting across to the ball side. That cut set up a double shake with Ayayi and Kispert. Nembhard — who is consistently effective at finding the shake — delivers the pass to Kispert on time and on target.
Meanwhile, Baylor is actually coming off of an impressive ball screen defense performance against Houston.
Against Tchatchoua and Thamba, Houston was unable to take advantage of Baylor putting two on the ball. Fabian White especially struggled when popping into empty space — taking low percentage mid-range jumpers or turning it over when putting the ball on the floor.
Drew Timme’s ball skills will leave Gonzaga much better equipped to pop into space tonight.
5] Is a small-ball battle inevitable?
All season, it has felt inevitable that this potential matchup may end up turning into a battle of small-ball lineups.
After beginning the season with Anton Watson in the starting lineup, Gonzaga fully committed to their smaller lineup in early February. We know we’ll see plenty of Corey Kispert at the four tonight.
However, Baylor has chosen to stick with Flo Thamba in the starting lineup for the entire season — although Flagler, Tchamwa Tchatchoua, and Mayer all average more minutes.
I don’t necessarily think it’s a great idea to fight small-ball with small-ball against Gonzaga. It’s very difficult to beat them at their own game.
But if any team has the roster to pull it off, it’s Baylor.
If Thamba and/or Tchamwa Tchatchoua start getting exploited in ball screens, Baylor’s next course of action will likely be to:
Put out the best offensive lineup possible
Switch everything defensively
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On a personal note…
Thank you all for your continued support of Hoop Vision this season!
The past 12 months have been filled with uncertainty, but we have been fortunate enough to be able to stay the course and keep growing Hoop Vision. As an audience-funded business, we obviously could not have done this without your support.
We’ll have plenty of post-game analysis of Gonzaga-Baylor coming your way this week in the newsletter and on the YouTube channel.
Then shortly after I’ll lay-out what is on the horizon for Hoop Vision and our content plan for the off-season.
Thank you again and enjoy the game!!
— Jordan
More Gonzaga and Baylor videos to get you ready for tonight
Why Gonzaga is the Most Efficient 2-Point Shooting Team Ever [9 min 45 sec]
How Baylor Exploited Houston’s Defense [2 mins]