Getting You Ready to Fill Out Your Bracket

Bracket strategy, opponent compatibility, and a new YouTube video on Purdue.

Mar 18, 2024

It’s that time of year again!

With the play-in games tipping off tomorrow, we’re less than 72 hours away from a full day of single elimination basketball.

First things first, I want to extend an invitation to join the official Hoop Vision bracket pool.

The pool — which is being hosted at ESPN — is completely free to register. First place will receive an exclusive HV hoodie and second through fifth place will receive HV dri-fit t-shirts.

We would love to have you join!

Click/tap to register for the Hoop Vision bracket contest

New YouTube Video

Over the weekend, we published our fourth full-length team breakdown of the season. This one is on Purdue and Zach Edey.

The video details Matt Painter and Purdue’s offensive scheme. It also charts every Zach Edey made basket and covers three things Purdue is doing differently this season:

More ball screens for Braden Smith
Much better three-point shooting
More post-ups in the middle third for Zach Edey

We have now covered four teams in-depth this season over on the YouTube channel. If you haven’t already, check those out before making final decisions on your bracket. At the very least, the videos will make you a more informed fan while watching these four teams play later this week.

Do Matchups Matter in the Tourney?

For years now, I have been thinking and writing about the concept of “opponent compatibility” — and, more specifically, how it relates to March Madness and bracket strategy.

It’s a topic I first looked at back in college for a writing contest at TeamRankings.com.

Here’s the example I used in that original article from the 2013 NCAA tournament:

The Minnesota-UCLA matchup featured the best offensive rebounding team in the country (Minnesota) and the 263rd defensive rebounding team in the country (UCLA). A smart analyst would point this compatible Minnesota strength and UCLA weakness out, but what does it really mean for the expected outcome of a game?
On one hand, Minnesota should kill UCLA on the offensive boards, possibly creating a huge advantage for Minnesota. On the other hand, Minnesota kills just about everyone on the offensive boards. UCLA wouldn’t be able to stop the lethal Minnesota rebounding attack regardless, so maybe this is a waste of an opponent weakness for Minnesota.

Then a couple years ago, I revisited the idea of opponent compatibility with my updated thoughts.

The newsletter includes:

Zone defense and the effects of extreme styles of play on opponents
Why we’re not as good at identifying matchup advantages as we think
In-game adjustments, including an example from Virginia and Tony Bennett
Some final advice for your brackets

LINK: Do Matchups Matter?

Bracket Strategy

When competing in a bracket pool, the most important thing (in my opinion) is the concept of bracket strategy.

The idea that it doesn’t just matter who you pick, it also matters who your opponents are picking.

So… How do you determine who your opponents are likely picking?

In the past, ESPN has published a “Who Picked Whom” page that shows you the public pick percentage for every team and round. Unfortunately, that page doesn’t seem to exist this season. However, Yahoo has a similar page that can be found here.

By using that information from Yahoo, we can then compare it to Ken Pomeroy’s NCAA tournament probabilities.

Here is that comparison for every team seeded fourth or better.

Let me explain how to read this table…

According to the Kenpom model, UConn has a 16% chance of winning the NCAA tournament. However, 32% of all bracket entries at Yahoo are selecting the Huskies to win it all. That difference of -16% is the biggest of any team in the field.

On the other hand, Auburn has a +6% differential. They are only being picked to win it all in 1.6% of Yahoo brackets. That makes them the best value pick of any team in the field.

Of course, this doesn’t necessarily mean UConn is the wrong pick — or Auburn is the right pick — for your specific pool. But it does mean that you will have to nail your early round picks in order to win your pool with a UConn entry.

The more entrants in your pool, the more it makes sense to pick based on value. However, if you’re in a smaller pool, UConn is more likely to be the correct pick.

Determining the optimal strategy is where PoolGenius comes in…

This edition of the Hoop Vision newsletter is brought to you by PoolGenius

If you're entering an NCAA bracket pool, tournament survivor pool, or Calcutta auction this March, the crew at PoolGenius is again extending special discounts to the Hoop Vision community.

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Hoop Vision