How important is the mid-range jumper in 2023?

The three-point revolution may have hit its peak.

For years — both in this newsletter and throughout college basketball media — you’ve likely been reading about the “Three-Point Revolution” taking over the sport. Following the NBA’s lead, college basketball offenses have embraced the three-ball and the spacing and positional flexibility it can provide.

Don’t look now — but it seems that college basketball’s three-point revolution may have reached its peak.

Since the line was moved back prior to the 2019-20 season, the percentage of shots that are three-point attempts has essentially stabilized — hovering between 37.3% and 37.7%. Last season’s 37.3% was actually the lowest of the four seasons.

Not just that: the expected value of three-point shot attempts has also stabilized.

Last season, the average three-point attempt was worth 1.02 points per shot. The average two-point attempt was worth 1.00 points per shot. That’s a significant change from the early 2010’s when three-pointers were about 0.07 points more valuable than two-pointers.

Moreover, if you adjust for the fact that two-point attempts lead to free throws at a greater rate than threes, you can argue that we’ve gotten to an efficiency equilibrium.

One of the main causes of that efficiency equilibrium is how defenses have changed over the past decade.

As offenses began prioritizing three-pointers, defenses followed suit, and are now prioritizing taking away those attempt — ideally in exchange for inefficient mid-range jumpers. It took a few years, but the top defensive minds in college basketball found a way to fight back against the three-point revolution.

So all of this begs the question: Is the mid-range jumper making a comeback?

With defenses staying home on three-point shooters and employing heavy drop coverage in ball screen defense, are two-point jumpers a necessary counter?

To answer that, let’s first come up with a definition for mid-range shot attempts.