It's 1 vs 2! (HV Weekly: 12/4/20)
The key to the matchup in tomorrow's showdown between Baylor and Gonzaga.
Welcome back to the Hoop Vision Weekly!
The past week’s schedule was loaded with top 25 matchups.
In the Champions Classic, Kansas came back from behind against Kentucky while Michigan State handled Duke. In the Jimmy V Classic, Gonzaga survived a potential Jalen Suggs injury against West Virginia and Baylor pulled away in the second half from Illinois.
And in poetic fashion, the results set up a #1 vs #2 game on Saturday between Gonzaga and Baylor.
We have much more on that matchup below, but first…
We sent out our first Starting Five of the season to Hoop Vision PLUS subscribers. This week’s focus was on Houston’s gameplan against the Texas Tech no-middle defense — plus how Texas Tech adjusted.
The full Hoop Vision PLUS article contains different set plays and concepts used by Kelvin Sampson and Chris Beard’s decision to get more aggressive down the stretch.
Become an HV+ subscriber today ($10/month or $100/year) to receive The Starting Five newsletter straight to your inbox every week during the college basketball season.
In today’s edition of the Weekly:
Baylor’s hot offensive start
The key to the Gonzaga-Baylor matchup
A roundup of Hoop Vision content and podcast appearances from the week
Games To Watch
Since we started writing this Games to Watch section, there has never been a weekend with more obvious choices.
On Saturday, we get the kenpom #1 against the kenpom #2. On Sunday, we get the kenpom #3 against the kenpom #4. Not bad.
If you’re wondering just how rare a #1 vs #2 matchup is in a given season, Ken Pomeroy’s FanMatch archive has you covered.
Since 2011, there have been six instances of the top two teams matching up. However, it has been more common the past two years.
Kenpom #1 and #2 matchups since 2011
February 22, 2020 — #1 Kansas (64) at #2 Baylor (61)
November 5, 2019 — #1 Michigan State (62) vs #2 Kentucky (69)
February 9, 2019 — #1 Virginia (71) vs #2 Duke (81)
January 19, 2019 — #1 Virginia (70) at #2 Duke (72)
April 4, 2016 — #1 Villanova (77) vs #2 North Carolina (74)
November 17, 2015 — #1 Duke (63) vs #2 Kentucky (74)
Baylor’s elite offense?
Through three games, Gonzaga’s offense has received all the hype. And to be fair, that hype is warranted.
In their season opener against Kansas, Gonzaga posted the best two-point percentage of any Bill Self opponent since Self arrived in Lawrence.
But it’s actually been the Baylor offense which has gotten off to a more efficient start — albeit against a weaker schedule.
Gonzaga offense… 1.17 ppp / 65% 2P% / 29% 3P%
Baylor offense… 1.29 ppp / 53% 2P% / 47% 3P%
We know that both offenses are due for some regression to the mean on three-point shooting. Gonzaga will almost certainly finish above 29% and Baylor will almost certainly finish below 47%.
But there are legitimate reasons to believe that the Baylor offense has taken a big jump from last year’s version, which finished the season ranked #17 in adjusted efficiency.
First, Baylor has better floor spacing this season thanks to transfer Adam Flagler. Flagler shot 38% from three on 264 attempts during his freshman season at Presbyterian — and he is currently 9-for-20 (45%) to start this season.
Another Baylor sit-out transfer — Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua — has also been a pleasant surprise. He has filled the offensive rebounding void left by Freddie Gillespie, but also provided the Bears a capable roller to the basket in ball screen situations.
The combination of quick guards, floor spacing, and a strong roller builds a strong foundation for offensive success. On top of that, Baylor hasn’t sacrificed offensive rebounding in the slightest — they are rebounding 46% of their missed shots.
So while the Baylor offense is off to an unreasonably hot start, it feels like this Bears team has a strong possibility of finishing the season ranked in the top 10 on both sides of the ball.
Key to the matchup
Even with Baylor’s surprisingly strong offense, the marquee matchup to really get excited about is the Gonzaga offense against the Baylor “no-middle” defense.
Like last year, Baylor’s perimeter one-one-one defense is absolutely suffocating. Just ask Illinois’ Ayo Dosunmu — the All-American candidate went 6-for-18 against Davion Mitchell and company.
The Illinois offense relies heavily on (mainly false) motion early in the shot clock for ball screens and isolations later in the possession. Baylor switched all that motion defensively, ultimately forcing the Illini guards into late clock one-on-one situations.
Without Freddie Gillespie, there is one major difference for Baylor’s defense this season: They aren’t switching ball screens with their 5-man.
Baylor’s ball screen defense was the one area of weakness against Illinois. Here you can see they put two players on Dosunmu — opening up the Cockburn roll.
And this time the 5-man (Flo Thamba) keeps Dosunmu in front of him, but the help leads to an open corner three.
On the other hand, Gonzaga generally doesn’t use a lot of false motion or perimeter isolation in their offense — they just get straight to ball screens.
If I’m Mark Few, I’m putting Thamba and Tchamwa Tchatchoua in as many ball screens as possible.
Jalen Suggs was Gonzaga’s primary ball screen initiator in the first two games, and his speed will be a challenge for the Baylor bigs.
Andrew Nembhard took over that role following Suggs’ injury against West Virginia. Nembhard doesn’t have Suggs’ speed, but he’s probably the best passer of the Gonzaga guards.
Watch Nembhard manipulate West Virginia’s help defenders off the Spain action here:
Don’t get me wrong, the Baylor defense is great. The guards are especially good at not getting screened in the first place — fighting over the top and removing the need for putting two on the ball. However, Gonzaga will be a huge test for the Baylor bigs.
Baylor did play a little bit of a small-ball (Mark Vital at the 5) against Illinois. With that lineup, Scott Drew elected to switch all screens. I wouldn’t expect to see it a ton tomorrow (and I’m not entirely sure it’s wise to fight small-ball with small-ball against the Zags), but it could be a potential adjustment if the bigs struggle with Suggs and Nembhard.
Podcast appearances
This week, I was a guest on two different podcasts.
First, I joined former Gonzaga All-American Dan Dickau on The Iso.
Sperber joined Friday’s episode of The Iso with Dan Dickau to talk about turning Hoop Vision from a hobby to a full-time job and why raw statistics need sharp analysis.
Link to The Iso with Dan Dickau
I also joined Paul and Pierce from Streaking The Lawn to discuss all things Virginia basketball.
On the pod, Jordan and the guys discuss this change, how the team reverted back to a previous style against St. Francis, and how the personnel on the squad can really dictate the strategy employed on the offensive end.
Link to Streaking the Lawn Podcast
Tweets from this week
Virginia went back almost exclusively to their Blocker-Mover offense in the win over St. Francis PA
West Virginia’s pressure defense and the surprising versatility of Oscar Tshiebwe
Marcus Garrett anticipating the euro step in transition
Stanford scoring off a very familiar action against Alabama
Jacob Gilyard’s pesky ball screen defense
Steven Karr on Gonzaga’s after timeout panic backdoor play. The Zags ran that last season as well
Mark Few is the… shiznit?
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