Welcome back to the Hoop Vision Weekly!
And for the many new subscribers who are joining us for their first edition…thank you for signing up! I’d love to hear any feedback or suggestions.
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After last weekend, we feel compelled to make an official Hoop Vision statement:
We are very pleased that March Madness is back.
It was a long two years, and last weekend certainly did not disappoint.
In Monday’s Starting Five newsletter for Hoop Vision PLUS subscribers, we covered three of the most notable upsets from the first weekend of action: Oral Roberts, North Texas, and Ohio. All three teams are led by ball-dominant guards, but each found success and ultimately won out in different ways.
For some detailed X’s and O’s, GIFs, and statistical charting from the opening weekend of action, check out that Starting Five.
With the Sweet 16 kicking off this weekend, we will be sending out another edition of The Starting Five to Hoop Vision PLUS subscribers after it all plays out.
If you’re new around here: the HV+ subscription is $10/month or $100/year, unlocking free subscriber-only content, events and analysis for you, while enabling us to continue producing ad-free, independent Hoop Vision content across all of our platforms.
In this edition of the HV Weekly, we have more on Oral Roberts and look ahead at two games on tomorrow’s Sweet 16 schedule.
New video on Oral Roberts’ ongoing Cinderella run
The Rematch: looking back at the ORU-Arkansas contest from December
By The Numbers: Cinderella runs in past years, and how this year compares
Houston, and Syracuse, and rebounding (oh my!)
Oral Roberts’ surprise run
With back-to-back upsets over Ohio State and Florida, Oral Roberts became just the second ever 15-seed to advance to the Sweet 16 (Florida Gulf Coast, 2013).
On the YouTube channel, we broke down the Oral Roberts offense. This seven-minute voiceover video includes:
ORU’s wins over Ohio State and Florida
The Abmas-Obanor pick and pop combination
A look back to ORU’s first meeting against Arkansas in December
More on the Arkansas matchup
In the video, I mentioned how Arkansas’ Connor Vanover — after struggling in ball screen defense — was benched in the second half against Oral Roberts. The Razorbacks went small and switched switched ball screens, turning a 10-point halftime deficit into an 11-point victory.
Since that first meeting, though, both teams come into the Sweet 16 with new approaches and personnel.
For Arkansas, 6-foot-10 Jaylin Williams did not play a single minute in the December game.
Fast forward to now: Williams is coming off of a 10-rebound performance in his first start of the season against Texas Tech.
Oral Roberts also looked significantly different in December than the team you have watched over the past week or two. Most notably, the Golden Eagles two star scorers — Max Abmas and Kevin Obanor — both spent significant time on the bench.
Fast forward to now: Abmas has played every minute of every postseason game for ORU. He played all 120 minutes of the Summit League tournament and all 85 minutes of the NCAA tournament so far.
Against Arkansas, Abmas was in foul trouble, as he committed three fouls in the first half. And then when he was on the court, Abmas posted one of his lowest usage rates of the season against the Razorbacks.
There were a couple different reasons for the lower usage rate:
The Arkansas pressure and athleticism appeared to genuinely bother Abmas. As a result, he spent more time off the ball than usual.
RJ Glasper — now out for the season with a knee injury — was an integral part of Oral Roberts’ offense prior to his injury.
Obanor is also being used differently now than in December. In that first matchup against Arkansas, he played on the inside a lot. During March Madness and the Summit League tournament, Obanor been setting more ball screens and shooting more threes.
The Arkansas small-ball lineup — with Justin Smith at the five — is a seemingly perfect antidote to Oral Roberts’ stellar pick-and-pop approach. Keep an eye on the Razorbacks’ rotations in this rematch.
Cinderellas by the numbers
Oral Roberts is one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country. They rank 14th in three-point percentage and 18th in three-point volume.
Despite the heroics of Abmas and Obanor, however, the Golden Eagles have actually shot below their season average in the tournament so far.
As noted in the video, the ORU role players — aka everyone not named Abmas or Obanor — were just 5-for-29 from deep on the opening weekend.
The graph below plots every NCAA tournament victory by teams seeded 13 or worse in the kenpom era.
On the x-axis: the team’s three-point percentage in the single game win
On the y-axis the team’s three-point percentage for the season
The teams to the left of the diagonal line — like Oral Roberts — all actually shot worse than their season averages.
Some quick stats:
In 20 out of 35 upsets, the team shot above their season average
In the 35 games, the teams shot an average of 39% from three (compared to a season average of 36%)
Even though Oral Roberts’ threes haven’t been going in, that hasn’t stopped them from continuing to shoot.
The graph below is the same as above, but now we are looking at three-point volume instead of percentage.
At least half of Oral Roberts’ shot attempts were from three in both wins. UMBC (2018) and Bucknell (2005) are the only other Cinderella examples to do that in an upset win.
In 18 out of 35 upsets, the team shot more threes than their season average
In the 35 games, 36% of shots were three-pointers (compared to a season average of 35%)
There are several recent teams (ORU, Marshall, and UMBC) at the top of the graph. Considering how much three-point volume has increased nationally over the past 10-20 years, that shouldn’t be much of a surprise.
Houston, Syracuse, and Rebounding
Elsewhere in the Sweet 16, we have another fascinating matchup between Houston and Syracuse.
Houston is the second-best offensive rebounding team in the country; the Cougars rebound just under 40% of their missed shots.
Syracuse — as is the norm for any team playing a 2-3 zone — struggles on the defensive glass. The Orange are 340th in defensive rebounding percentage.
So how has Syracuse performed in the past against offensive rebounding stalwarts like Houston?
In the kenpom era, Syracuse has played 16 NCAA tournament games against offenses which rebound at least 35% of their missed shots. The results are in the table below.
In the tournament games against Syracuse, those 16 teams have increased their offensive rebounding percentage to 42% against the Syracuse 2-3 zone.
In other words, Houston will more likely than not have a big offensive rebounding night against the Orange.
However, the offensive rebounding hasn’t led to wins. These good offensive rebounding teams are just 5-11 against Syracuse.
I wrote more about the Syracuse 2-3 zone, “opponent compatibility”, and if matchups really matter in an HV+ newsletter right after Selection Sunday.
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