Why the best teams don't take the best shots (HV+)

The trade-off between shot selection and just about everything else

Expected points per shot

The lowest-hanging fruit for the basketball analytics movement has been shot selection. Not only is the math overwhelmingly in favor of threes and layups, but the math is also very simple. Because three is greater than two, a 33% three-point shot has the same expected value as a 50% two-point shot.

And to be fair, some coaches wer…