Big Week in the Big 12 -- and beyond! (HV Weekly: 1/10/2020)
Baylor-Kansas preview, the Spread offense, and weekly X's and O's roundup.
Welcome back to the Hoop Vision Weekly!
For those who have been with us for a while, thank you for your continued support! For the folks new around here: we’re glad you’ve found us; we do this every Friday.
Before we begin looking ahead to the weekend, a quick moment of appreciation for the return of conference play, and thus, the return of big-time Thursday night hoops. Last night was superb, with three of the biggest games of the night going into overtime (Oregon-Arizona, Michigan-Purdue, Saint Mary’s-BYU), and a decisive win for Wichita State over Memphis to give the Shockers early control of the AAC race.
More on the week that was — and the weekend that will be — in this edition:
A look at the marquee game(s) of the weekend slate, with a particular focus on Baylor vs. Kansas
Let’s go!
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LOOKING AHEAD
(*Reminder: Team rankings and score projections via KenPom.com)
35 games between teams ranked in the KenPom Top 100
21 games between teams in Top 68 (tied for season high)
11 games between Top 48 teams
5 games between Top 32
1 game between Top 16
Game To Watch
#10 Baylor at #2 Kansas
Earlier this week, Baylor’s road win in Lubbock and Kansas’s road win in Ames helped set up a massive Saturday game in the Big 12, featuring two of the Top 10 defenses in the country. We have discussed Kansas in this space in the past, so today we dive into Baylor.
After Texas Tech’s loss on Tuesday, Chris Beard called Baylor’s defense “one of the best in college basketball this year.” Baylor ranks eighth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency and allowed just 0.83 points per possession in Tuesday’s road win — the worst offensive home performance for Texas Tech in the Chris Beard era.
Scott Drew — who has traditionally mixed in a healthy amount of 1-1-3 tandem zone defense in past years — has played almost all man-to-man this season. With Baylor’s size and versatility, they can switch screens and deny passing lanes. The defense looks (in some ways) like that of Texas Tech, with a knack for taking away the offense’s primary action.
With all that said, it’s the offensive side of the ball where Baylor has some uncertainty. The Bears’ offense is largely dependent on one “Four Factors” component: Rebounding. In each of the last seven seasons (including this one), Scott Drew’s team has ranked in the top 10 nationally in offensive rebounding.
No coach has done that for any of the Four Factors during the seven year span.
Number of times ranked in the top 10 in a Four Factor over the past seven seasons
7 for 7 — Scott Drew, offensive rebounding
6 for 7 — Bob Huggins, offensive rebounding
5 for 7 — John Beilein and Mike Brey, turnovers
5 for 7 — Mark Few and Rick Byrd, effective field goal
Another extreme aspect of Baylor’s offense is their relative dependence on isolation. This season, 9.4 plays per game have ended with isolation for the Bears. That puts them in the top 10 in the country in isolation usage — and nearly in a tie for first with Oklahoma among teams from high-major conferences.
There have been efficient offenses despite high isolation usage in past seasons — Nevada under Eric Musselman stands out — but it’s not the preferable way to generate points. Baylor, in particular, is scoring just 0.73 points per isolation.
In tomorrow’s game, Kansas’s size and length should make it difficult for Baylor to be efficient in their isolation situations. If the Jayhawks can manage to keep Freddie Gillespie and the rest of the Bears off the glass (which is a very big if), points will be hard to come by for Baylor.
Film Room: Baylor’s switch-and-deny defense against Texas Tech
KenPom Projection: Kansas 69, Baylor 61
(78% Kansas win probability)
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Some other fun ones
Highest-ranked matchups…
High-Major: Baylor (#10) at Kansas (#2)
”Low-Major” Special: UNC-Greensboro (#88) at Furman (#57)
Biggest Projected Blowout…
Dayton 84, UMass 64
Projected Highest-Scoring Game(s)…
Buffalo 81, Miami (Ohio) 80
Lamar 82, Houston Baptist 79
Kent State 86, Central Michigan 75
Projected Lowest-Scoring Game…
Fairfield 57, Manhattan 54
LOOKING BACK
THE STUFF YOU MISSED WHILE GIVING UP ON 2020 RESOLUTIONS
It was a big week of Hoop Vision content (‘tis the season!), so we’ll use this space for a little rewind of the week.
The biggest production of the week was a 25-minute, comprehensive breakdown of the “Spread” Offense championed by Brad Underwood — the latest in our line of in-depth offensive breakdowns over on the Hoop Vision YouTube channel.
Watch below or directly on YouTube to learn more about a unique offense that has become Underwood’s calling card across his coaching stints at Stephen F. Austin, Oklahoma State, and Illinois:
Over the past year, we’ve also done comprehensive breakdowns of the Princeton (32 mins), Blocker-Mover (14 mins), and Continuity Ball Screen (12 mins).
Hoop Vision Plus subscribers were given an even deeper dive into the Spread offense, with additional video notes, quotes from the coaches who have run it, an action-by-action breakdown, and much more. A quick excerpt from one of those sections:
One of the main themes in the video is the dichotomy between motion offenses and ball screen offenses. This apparent conflict between ball screens and motion isn’t just a narrative-based talking point.
…
Generally speaking, Oregon’s Dana Altman has shifted his offense more towards the conventional style used in the NCAA. Elements of the spread are still present in Oregon’s scheme, but they have been toned down.
Underwood has generally been the opposite. He has tended to stick with his core system first and then made more minor adjustments from there. However, it should be noted that his most extreme changes have come this season. Against Michigan State last week, Illinois hardly ran the Spread. Just three days later against Purdue, they were right back to the basics of the Spread.
(Editor’s Note: This HV+ post has caught some serious buzz in the video coordinator / scouting coordinator world, as it’s the first breakdown of its kind on this unique offense.)
Another theme for this week was the post-up, a frequent point of discussion here at Hoop Vision HQ and throughout the basketball world.
While many bemoan the death of the post-up and insist that the entry pass is becoming obsolete in today’s game, we find that the top three teams in this week’s AP Poll are all heavily reliant on the post-up:
And once you go down the post-up rabbit hole, it’s hard to get back out. This week, that rabbit hole led us to a program deep in the heart of Texas, Abilene Christian:
Post-ups were also a focal point of this week’s “Starting Five”— a weekly HV+ feature highlighting five actions, notes, or happenings from the weekend slate — although an unconventional method being deployed by West Virginia also made its way into this week’s edition:
[West Virginia] Changing the angle of off-ball screens
The West Virginia offense isn’t usually pretty. The Mountaineers are just 248th in the eFG% and 223rd in TO%, but they salvage their offensive efficiency with elite rebounding and drawing fouls.
That being said, one of their off-ball screening concepts stands out to me as particularly difficult to guard. On ball screens, it’s fairly common for teams to change the angle of the screen. The concept can be used as a rescreen against a defense going under. Or the concept can be used to counter ice coverage.
On the play below, West Virginia changes the angle of their off-ball screens. The WVU players appear to be going to set some type of pin down initially, only to turn it into a back screen to the hoop.
It’s not an easy action to guard for a team that is cheating (or top-locking) in anticipation of the pin down.
Texas Tech has seemingly righted the ship—clipping off five wins after a shaky 5-3 start to the season— but the Red Raiders narrowly fell to a red-hot Baylor team on Tuesday night, in a matchup that was heavenly for the defensive enthusiasts among us:
Another team surging — or some might argue, playing up to their potential — as league play goes into full swing is Michigan State; the Spartans’ January renaissance is due in large part to what Xavier Tillman brings to the floor, including his passing ability as a dynamic big man:
And while we have no Solving Basketball or Big Game Pod episodes to plug this week, Jordan joined the Coaches’ Influence podcast with Justin Lovvorn (an HV+ subscriber!) to discuss analytics, offensive efficiency, finding balance within a system, Jordan’s background, and more (Listen: Spotify).
X’s and O’s from the week
Some other assorted actions and captures from the week, featuring — per usual — a fairly eclectic mix of teams and actions:
Texas Tech conceding skip pass + switching DHO against Oklahoma State’s Spread offense
Abilene Christian overload set for a post pin
Baylor’s empty ball screen set geared to put help defenders in a precarious position
One of last Saturday’s high-profile games pitted Louisville against Florida State, in a matchup of highly contrasting styles when it comes to guarding one pass away