Doing Numbers in November (HV Weekly: 11/15/2019)
A weekend slate without marquee games, but a slate we'll learn some things from.
Another week, another #1 goes down.
Another Friday, another Hoop Vision Weekly (we’re approaching one year of weekly Friday emails!!!)
Another Hoop Vision Weekly, another masterfully written intro section.
Another intro section, another time you groan and say to yourself, “just get to it!”
So let’s get to it. Thank you for your continued support of Hoop Vision.
LOOKING AHEAD
(*Reminder: Team rankings and score projections via KenPom.com)
This weekend (Fri/Sat/Sun)…
12 games between teams ranked in the KenPom Top 100
3 games between teams in Top 68
1 game between Top 48 teams
ZERO!!! games between Top 32
The fun ones
Highest-ranked matchups…
HM vs. HM: Tennessee (#21) vs. Washington (#45) — in Toronto
HM vs. HM: Marquette (#13) at Wisconsin (#49)
HM vs. MM: Alabama (#68) at Rhode Island (#90)
MM/LM vs. MM/LM: Harvard (#82) vs. Buffalo (#107) — in Toronto
High-Major TRUE road games (excl. in-conference games):
West Virginia at Pitt, Fri 7pm ET
Alabama at Rhode Island, Fri 7:30pm ET
Gonzaga (yes, they count) at Texas A&M, Fri 9pm ET
Minnesota at Utah, Fri 9pm ET
Oregon State at Wyoming, Sat 9pm ET
USC at Nevada, Sat 11pm ET
Marquette at Wisconsin, Sun 1pm ET
Florida at UConn, Sun 3pm ET
Seton Hall at Saint Louis, Sun 4pm ET
Wake Forest at Charlotte, Sun 6pm ET
HM Road Notes: This will likely be the last weekend we do this — they’ll get far too frequent moving forward — but we’ll try to make note if we get a high-major AT low/mid-major on the schedule again…This week, a few HM @ MM/LM treats…Only Nevada has had multiple hosting appearances here; USC their second Pac-12 foe of the year, Utah was the first…
Biggest Projected Blowout…
Purdue 90, Chicago State 51
Projected Highest-Scoring Game…
Iowa 90, Oral Roberts 75
Projected Lowest-Scoring Game(s)…
North Texas 63, Eastern Michigan 58
Pacific 63, UC-Riverside 58
——
Games To Watch
#7 Gonzaga at #66 Texas A&M
Friday 9pm ET (SEC Network)
Gonzaga lost a ton of talent from last year’s squad in Rui Hachimura, Brandon Clarke, Josh Perkins, and Zach Norvell, but thanks to Mark Few’s strong track record, the Zags still came in as a Top-10 team in KenPom’s preseason projections.
This season, Filip Petrusev has been their high-usage scorer through three games. The sophomore big had some good moments early in the season last year (remember the first half vs. Duke?), but barely played during the NCAA tournament — and the huge jump to a 33% usage player is fairly surprising. The backcourt is led by two transfers: Ryan Wooldridge (North Texas) and Admon Gilder (Texas A&M, coincidentally).
Gonzaga has been great offensively against a very weak schedule — scoring 1.37, 1.46, and 1.29 points per possession in their three games. Tonight, they will face Buzz Williams’ very unique defense.
Last season, Williams’ defense at Virginia Tech was indifferent to guarding the three-point line. About 50% of opponent shots were from three against Virginia Tech. Thus far in this young season, Texas A&M’s three-point attempt rate allowed is even higher — 52%. Williams had success with the help one-pass-away style of defense in Blacksburg, but it will be tested tonight.
Film Room: Why Gonzaga WAS the Hardest Team to Guard in the Country (last season)
KenPom Prediction: Gonzaga 74, Texas A&M 69
(68% Gonzaga win probability)
#26 Florida at #81 UConn
Sunday 3pm ET (ESPN)
After landing Kerry Blackshear this summer, Florida entered the season with very high expectations. Through three games, those expectations have not been met, and it’s largely due to one reason: Shooting.
The Gators have shot 24% from three (#310 in the country) and 45% from two (#243 in the country) to start the season. The good news is that certainly some of that shooting struggle is simply just small sample size misfortune. The question: how much of the struggle can be owed to that small sample size?
The supporting cast is essentially all freshmen and sophomores, and it remains to be seen if players like Scottie Lewis (2-for-8 from three) or Tre Mann (2-for-10 from three) will respect the attention of defenses choosing to shrink the floor and clog the paint.
UConn has been playing fast in year number two under Dan Hurley. The average Huskies possession has lasted just 12.9 seconds — third fastest in the country. But, contrary to popular belief, increased tempo does not necessarily mean increased efficiency. UConn ranks 92nd in raw points per possession after two games.
Film Room: Mike White’s modernized Princeton offense
KenPom Prediction: Florida 70, UConn 68
(59% Florida win probability)
LOOKING BACK
THE STUFF YOU MISSED WHILE SEARCHING YOUR TV GUIDE FOR THE ACC NETWORK
The biggest thing from Hoop Vision this week was our coverage around icing ball screens and the tactic’s prevalence in college hoops this year and moving forward.
Below: an 11-minute breakdown on ICING. Not the cupcakes or Smirnoff variety, but the tactic that’s shaping defensive strategy across college basketball.
Another edition of the Big Game Pod — a new podcast co-hosted by Jordan Sperber (Hoop Vision) and Gibson Pyper (TheBasketballPlaybook.com) — was released this week, breaking down Memphis vs. Oregon. Check it out, and please send any feedback on the new podcast!
Listen to Big Game Pod - Memphis vs. Oregon: Apple // Spotify
There’s a lot of chatter every year — typically between dueling fanbases — around teams that take advantage of non-conference flexibility and “staying home” more than their rivals. There are also programs which butter their bread with brutal road stretches of “buy” games before league play begins. A graphical look at those differences below (image links to original tweet):
Staying with the “icing” theme, a look at Texas Tech’s ice-to-switch coverage:
Lots of love from Kansas this week. Friend of Hoop Vision Jesse Newell included some HV material in his latest article about Kansas’ defensive approach this season, while Jack Gilles threw this together based on last week’s coverage:
If you can’t get enough of Virginia, click/tap for this thread charting their offense through the first two games, which includes clips of the new-look Hoos.
More quick X’s and O’s:
UNC-Greensboro gave Kansas a little bit of a scare; here’s a look at some creativity from the Spartans
Illinois running their “spread” offense vs. Arizona and flowing into Hi-Lo
More James Wiseman in horns
The “eyes” BLOB is a national favorite; here’s Louisville’s
Circle Lob Dunk snippets from Mike White and Leonard Hamilton
And via another friend of Hoop Vision Ken Pomeroy, no, you’re not crazy. This season is off to a historically slow start, offensively:
THIS WEEK ON HOOP VISION PLUS
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Thursday: Why Everybody Is Icing Ball Screens
Last year, it was Continuity Ball Screen. This year, the early clubhouse leader of “trend you can’t ignore” in college hoops: icing ball screens.
A highly skilled screener is probably the biggest antidote to ice.
If the screener can pop to the three-point line and shoot it at a high rate, it puts a lot of stress on the defense. It also puts stress on the defense if the screener can short roll to the hoop and make good decisions off the dribble.
However, those types of big men are few and far between in college basketball. And — at least in my opinion — the positives of ice tend to outweigh the negatives of ice when the coverage is executed correctly.
The italicized section of the previous sentence is the important part. Ice is great in theory, but it can be difficult to actually execute on the court.
Monday: The Starting Five: 11/11/19
The Starting Five debuted in this newsletter last week, and we’re planning to release it every Monday to HV+ subscribers. In essence, it features five actions, stories, or thoughts from the previous week of games.
#3 [Northeastern] Jordan Roland’s school-record performance
On Friday night, Jordan Roland of Northeastern scored a school-record 42 points in a win over crosstown rival Harvard, eclipsing the record of 41 previously shared by JJ Barea and the late, great Reggie Lewis.
Through two games, Roland — the GW transfer — has established himself as one of the premier mid-major scorers, as he came close to breaking the school record in game one when he dropped 39 in a win over another crosstown foe — Boston University.
While Roland was the 2nd leading scorer on last year’s team that won the CAA and advanced to the NCAA Tournament, he still ranked 4th on the team in usage rate at 21.3%. With Vasa Pusica/Shawn Occeus now playing professionally and Donnell Gresham transferring to Georgia, Roland’s usage rate has nearly doubled (37.8%) through the first 2 games.
We are still early in the season and some regression to the mean is likely inevitable, but Roland’s efficiency has been arguably more eye-popping than his scoring volume. This season, he is shooting 28-for-43 (74% eFG%) from the field. He has been remarkably efficient with a shot selection that has included a high volume of difficult/contested shots: stepbacks, off-balanced threes, and a healthy dose of off-hand floaters.
Here Northeastern is in their version of Continuity Ball Screen and Roland uses a screen on the second side for one of those impressive off-hand floaters.
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