We Made It! (HV Weekly 11/20/20)
Our games to watch and people to follow as we start the 2020-21 season.
Welcome back to the Hoop Vision Weekly!
It has been 254 days since the last live college basketball game.
Since the season was abruptly cancelled in March, maintaining a weekly college basketball X’s & O’s and analytics newsletter has come with challenges. At times, the subject matter felt insignificant relative to world events — along with the struggle to come up with new content ideas that comes in any offseason (not to mention an offseason this long).
Even if the Hoop Vision Weekly wasn’t a weekly masterpiece since March, I’m proud that we powered through and churned out a newsletter every week anyways. On top of all of that, there were some highlights — three out of our top four most-read newsletters (ever!) came during this offseason.
JUNE: an X’s and O’s dive into 5-Out Offensive Concepts from Alabama, Creighton, and Nebraska
JULY: a look inside the business operations and strategy behind Hoop Vision
AUGUST: an analysis of Carleton’s unique defensive scheme
But now we are just days away from games tipping off once again, and we’re ready to bring the newsletter back to its roots. In today’s edition:
Previewing Baylor-Arizona State and Kansas-Gonzaga for next week
Who to read, watch, and follow this college basketball season
Games To Watch
For long time readers of the HV Weekly, you might remember that we often use this space during the season to preview the top games to watch over the weekend. But with the season tipping off mid-week, we picked Wednesday and Thursday games for today’s edition of Games to Watch.
#1 Baylor vs #23 Arizona State
Arizona State finished just 108th in kenpom’s adjusted offensive efficiency last season, but the computers expect a big offensive jump for the Sun Devils in 2020-21 thanks to some new pieces.
On Wednesday against Baylor, we get a first look at top prospects Josh Christopher (#11 in ESPN 100) and Marcus Bagley (#33 in ESPN 100). Arizona State also added an immediately eligible transfer in Holland Woods — he averaged 18 points per game at Portland State.
However, expect the Arizona State offense to still flow through senior point guard Remy Martin — he led the Sun Devils in both usage rate and assist rate last season. And that sets up an awesome individual matchup between Martin and Davion “Off Night” Mitchell.
Of every player in the country, I’m not sure there’s a single player I’d rather give a point guard defensive assignment to than Mitchell. Baylor will likely switch screens and lose the matchup at times, but we should still get plenty of the Mitchell-Martin individual battle.
Kenpom Projection: Baylor 76, Arizona State 71
(68% Baylor win probability)
#2 Gonzaga vs #5 Kansas
On Thanksgiving Day, we get a top 10 matchup between the two programs most associated with the Hi-Lo.
With big men Drew Timme and Anton Watson, Gonzaga figures to start the season playing Mark Few’s typical offensive style. Corey Kispert could certainly slide over to the four at times in small-ball, but expect to see big-to-big action from the Zags early on.
Given Kansas’s personnel, I’d bet on Bill Self using his 4-game scheme as the Jayhawks’ primary offense instead of the hi-lo. (They were, in fact, running 4-game in a brief clip shared by Jesse Newell from a scrimmage.)
Kansas has certainly had success playing with four perimeter players in the past — most notably going to the 2018 Final Four with a top 10 offense. But we will have to see how the newcomers fit into the scheme in 2020-21. It’s unclear who will be the primary creator out of ball screens.
Kenpom Projection: Gonzaga 74, Kansas 72
(56% Gonzaga win probability)
Who to Follow
Before the season gets underway, we want to shoutout some of the other people/outlets covering college basketball in especially unique or interesting ways.
Off the court reporting and coverage…
This season, we will be sticking to what we do best: On-court analysis of teams, coaches, and players, and games. However, there is currently a lot going on off the court in the world of scheduling and logistics.
For that, our first recommendation is the Eye on College Basketball podcast with Matt Norlander and Gary Parrish. Norlander and Parrish both have regular access to coaches, administrators, and NCAA officials that allows them to provide a real understanding of what’s going on in this unusual landscape.
When I’m knee-deep in making some esoteric video on Continuity Ball Screen, I use their podcast to keep me up to date on the things normal people care about.
Next, we have to give another shoutout to Andy Wittry and his Out of Bounds newsletter. Using public records requests, his reporting includes behind the scenes information from emails, game contracts, and more. This week he wrote about Gregg Marshall’s separation agreement with Wichita State.
Go sign up for free to Out of Bounds HERE.
Team-specific coverage…
There are many different outlets providing great team-specific content. However, it can be difficult for these outlets to attract the general fan. Duke blogs and websites, just as an example, are really made specifically for Duke fans.
But there are people doing team-specific work that I’d recommend to any college basketball fan — especially given that you are currently reading our X’s & O’s and analytics focused newsletter: Jesse Newell and Dylan Burkhardt.
Jesse covers Kansas for the Kansas City Star. He combines X’s & O’s and analytics with the traditional beat writer style of reporting — in a way that I don’t think anyone else is doing in the space. An example from 2018: How an accident — and a play six years in the making — helped KU reach the Final Four. The article contains video, play diagrams, quotes from Bill Self, and quotes from players.
Dylan covers Michigan for his subscription-based site UM Hoops. He uses analytics, data visualization, and video in his coverage of Michigan and the Big Ten. An example from today: A graph of Columbia transfer Mike Smith’s ball screen usage.
I’m a paid subscriber for both of Jesse and Dylan’s paywalled content and would highly recommend both. But at the very least, go follow them on Twitter (links are at the top of this section).
Tweets and video…
Gibson Pyper (@HalfCourtHoops)
Eric Shapiro (@eric_shap)
Brian Geisinger (@bgeis_bird)
Shameless plug…
And finally, we would love to have you join us this season at Hoop Vision PLUS.
As always, the Friday Hoop Vision Weekly newsletter will remain free for our entire email list all season long. However, our Monday Starting Five newsletter is exclusive to HV+ subscribers. Each Monday, we will breakdown games, teams, players, actions, and concepts from the previous week of basketball.
HV+ members have also received subscriber-only preseason content over the last two months — including some thoughts on Baylor, Gonzaga, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia earlier this week
Full-length preseason previews:
Villanova, Illinois, Louisville, Richmond, Creighton, Duke, Tennessee
Thank you for the support of Hoop Vision!